Monday 27 October 2008

Back to Square one - 4 years of exhilarating journey

"During mahurat trading you should always buy your favourite scrip, and that too in multiples of nine" these are the famous words from Bhanabhai, the seniormost member in our equity trading group at Marico. I am in a midst of fun and learning but one thing that I miss is the equity market discussions we used to have at Marico.
It was 6 months since I joined Marico as management trainee, the NDA govt fell, May 17, 2004 and the sensex fell from 5069 to 4505, a fall of 564 points. I was novice to equity markets and had never previously traded on my own. Harish was in the same boat and both of us were curious to take the plunge. The next step was quiet obvious, we opened a online trading account with ICICI. The first stock i purchased was Arvind Mills, bought 100 shares at 56 and sold at 64 in a month. What a sense of satisfaction, Rs.800 a month. The stock has touched a high of 115 since then and is now trading at 14!!! I started investing in blue chip companies and started making notional profits, on the contrary Harish had a different approach. He liked to make losses in stocks like Nocil. His mantra was buy high and sell low. My first error in stock market was spicejet, i bought at 4 and sold at 6, what next it went on to touch 100.
A year later we had new member in our team, Vinod Gurnani. He was a third type of trader, interested in cyclical stocks. He had huge appetite and his favourite was arvind remedies. The matra was buy at 2.5 and sell at 3.5, it was a penny stock. The share currently trades at 1.3 (not bad as compared to market). It was fun playing the equity markets. The fourth member to join was Sateesh Penetela. He took some time, to get accustom to the market but once in he was at his best. His favourite was Ranbaxy, the day he invested in Ranbaxy it has never touched his cost price till date. We used to have fun looking at the prices of all our favourite stocks. While we were having this fun investing there were people like Vivek Karve who used to do a detail financial analysis and take decisions to buy the stocks. He was a true investor. I should also include the name of Nikhil as he was also a silent investor and maybe a long term investor, who was in and out of markets but never played it like a casino the way we did. As time passed by, we graduated ourselves to technical analysis. After attending a session by Vivek Patil, i though i knew all about stochastics and oscillator. Well the technical analysis syndrome caught us, and we all started doing stochastic and taking daily buy / sell decisions. The sensex was around 12,000
I moved on to corporate accounts and we had a big tolly of interested people. It was inevitable for the corporate accounts team comprising Satish Kadam, Swapnil, and Vishal working with me to get themselves into this casino. There were many others like Naresh, who came up with interesting scrips never heard of. I still recollect his recommendation freshtrop fruits @ 150, now trading at 15!!! Then there was Ankit Jain who believed in only buy, Amit Kedia and Aashu were also drowned in the casino by now. The best was my boss Subhash Bhat, he was as restless as anyone can be and we had real fun as well as great learning from him. The last one to be mentioned is Shri Saurabh Bhansali who is now being grilled at IIM B just like i am here. For sometime now we all had 'teledata' in our life. We started buying at 10 and it went upto 100, currently trading at 6. Many of us made and many lost, but that was a scrip that was the most talked about. Bhanabhai was our important advisor and a source of information. He has seen many bull and bear markets so it was fun listening his views. All of us were at one end and there was Srikrishna at the other, determined that he would not be getting in equity markets. He was the only one who was not convinced at this casino. Pawan joined in after Subhash's exit, he was again a person who started his journey with derivatives, not many people would dare this stint. But then he made some losses and reduced his exposure. We were also able to convince Mahesh Murkute to open an online trading account (not sure if he remembers the password now!!!)
Well by that time, i graduated myself to derivative. The fever passed on within the group, and many people started trying out F&O. The markets were hot at 20,000. More people were willing to take the plunge, until Jan 23rd, when all of us were in deep shit. People with open positions were struggling with margin calls and people with delivery saw their portfolio turn red in books. The activity subsided in sometime and it was time for me to say good bye. I am not sure about the position of the group members but it was a exhilarating ride for me. When i saw market kissing 8K today, well its approx 12% p.a. return since we started investing, i was surprised. We could have invested our money in bank FD and earned equivalent return, but am i justified when i say this? No, what about the learning that i had in last four years. It made me much more sensible and mature towards money and i m sure this learning would certainly help me in future.
Also in the journey of last 4 years the group had diversed set of people with different approach to equity markets. Was any of them the best? I don't think so, its just that a particular strategy is good for a particular market and hence one size fits all does not work. That's my guess... Hope u felt as nostalgic reading this as i felt while writing... feel free to put in your comments...

Sunday 12 October 2008

Term 4

Government, Society and Business
- Mudit Kapoor, ISB
- A K Shiva Kumar, UNICEF Bhavini Damaraju

Investment Analysis
- A Subrahmanyam, UCLA

Management of Organisations
- Stefan Thau, LBS
- Luis L. Martins, Georgia Tech Debapriyo Nag


Strategic Analysis of IT
- Rajiv D Banker, Temple
- Vallabh Sambamurthy, Michigan Aruna Deepthi

This was the last of the core terms at ISB. As in the previous 3 terms there was one person who was the highlight of the term and this time it was Subra. Invst Analysis lectures were real fun and all credit to Subra and his style of teaching. One needs to attend a lecture to believe it and also listen him in "Shudh Hindi"

GSBC was also interesting, though Mudit was a bit controversial I liked his thought provoking habit of teaching. Got a glimpse of political economics behind many decisions that we see in day to day life. Prof Shiva Kumar's lecture of population was very serious and heavy. I understood the importance of meaning "population control" and why one should never use such a term. It was also insightful to know the impact of one child policy in China.

Potential consultants started some warm up for placement preparation. I was not among them and hence had a relaxed life. I started my resume preparation and was able to complete it by end of term 4.

Friday 3 October 2008

Excellent Ads by public sector bank - but for what?

I have been watch television off late, to keep a check on financial market. In last few weeks I observed some astonising trend. Many public sector banks in India have come up with amazing advt. To be fair, I have never seen such emotional and appealing advt. even by any private sector banks.
But for what? Why are these banks advertising? I am not able to answer these questions. Do they think they will get any new customer by these advt? If they think so, they are foolish. Well I have not experienced the services of any of these banks for last few months, but I cannot accept that they have improved their service to such a level that they are willing to offer a customer a tea and accept deposit if he is a bit late. Its time to do some reality check. Just by putting such advt. does not automatically changes the operations, and I am sure they also know this.
The only conclusion I can make is, something is cooking as we say 'daal mein kuch kala hai OR puri daal hi kaali hai'. Someone is raking moolahs in this deal, not a bad idea.
For those who wish to have a look at the advt., they are available on youtube.